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Last chance to refinance below 5% Started by Todd Hennig - Posted January 11, 2010 7:57pm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you want to refinance your mortgage into a loan with a sub-5% interest rate, better hurry. Your window of opportunity is closing fast.

Lenders are still advertising rock-bottom interest rates, but for most borrowers, rates are rapidly rising into the 5%-plus category.

During the week of Jan. 7, the average 30-year, fixed-rate loan closed at 5.09%, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. That is significantly higher than the 4.71% it averaged at the beginning of the month, and experts say rates will go higher yet.

"Interest rates are up and they're not going to go down below 5% again," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, not for a while at least.

While homebuyers are still excited about these low mortgage rates, people who already have a loan and want to lower their costs are scrambling to lock in.

Refinancers act when the difference between the rate they're currently paying and the new one is at least a point or two wide, otherwise the costs of going through the refinancing wipes out any savings. In fact as rates rose in December, refinancings plunged, down more than 30%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

A big reason for the jump is that a government program that has kept rates very low is winding to a close. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing mortgage-backed securities since early 2009, scooping up as much as $1.25 trillion worth. That has dampened rate increases by providing a ready market for the securities.

But the Fed's program lapses on March 31, when it cedes the playing field to private investors, who will almost surely demand higher rates. The Fed has already been slowing its purchasing, and that has corresponded with the recent rate increases.

Not just mortgage rates have turned north. Treasury yields have as well, another indication that mortgage rates are headed skyward.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has grown steeply over the past few weeks. It stood at 3.2% at the beginning of December and has soared to 3.84% as of Tuesday, a 20% jump.

Mortgage interest does not track Treasury yields in lockstep, but the two tend to mirror each other's movements.

Mortgage securities rates are always higher than Treasury yields because investors demand a premium above practically risk-free Treasurys.

The difference between mortgage rates and Treasury yields is usually somewhere near 1.7 percentage points, according to Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associated, a publisher of mortgage information. The current spread of about 1.2 percentage points is quite narrow.

That's bound to change, according to David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. He believes mortgage rates will go up to about 5.5% by late summer. But other factors could push them into a larger-than-expected jump.

For example, as the economy improves (it's hoped), businesses will expand production, hire new workers and open new sales outlets. All that requires borrowing in capital markets and the demand for lending will expand interest rates of all kinds.

A recovering economy also boosts corporate profits, making stocks a better bet for investors.

"Stocks tend to do better when the economy improves," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services. "Mortgage rates will rise to attract investment."

Hoffman's forecast is for rates to stay quite constant the rest of the winter and then elevate gradually during the spring buying season, the busiest time of year for home sales. He said they should hit about 5.5% by the end of June.

After that, the increases will slow, according to Hoffman, but still approach 6% toward the end of the year. He believes they'll cap at around 5.75% and are not likely to fall back to the 5% level again. 

Treasury tightens screws on mortgage firms Started by Todd Hennig - Posted November 30, 2009 10:07pm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Looking to jumpstart its foreclosure prevention plan, the Obama administration announced new steps Monday to pressure loan servicers to help homeowners long term.

Responding to complaints that too many borrowers are stuck in trial adjustments, administration officials said they will now focus more heavily on getting borrowers into permanent modifications. Government swat teams will go to the institutions to see what the holdup is and banks will have to submit progress reports twice a day during December.

"Now it's up to the banks to do their part to covert borrowers to permanent modifications," said Michael Barr, an assistant Treasury secretary. "Servicers to date have not done a good enough job."

Only a tiny percentage of troubled homeowners have received permanent modifications, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the $75 billion effort. Treasury officials will release the first comprehensive look at the conversions next week.

Top loan servicers will be required to report the status of each modification and their plan to reach a decision. Also, these servicers must say how they will communicate decisions to borrowers.

Those failing to meet their obligations could face so-far unspecified penalties and sanctions.

Servicers have been hiring and training more staff and implementing new technology to work with borrowers.

"Servicers recognize the importance of turning trial modifications into permanent situations," said Faith Schwartz, executive director of Hope Now, a coalition of servicers, community groups and mortgage investors working to stem foreclosures.

Treasury officials also urged borrowers to be more diligent in sending in the documents needed to evaluate their applications. Only one-third of homeowners who have made at least three trial payments have submitted all the needed forms, said Phyllis Caldwell, the new head of Treasury's Homeownership Preservation Office. Some 20% have not submitted any paperwork.

To help borrowers through the process, the administration is providing more information on the documents they need to submit to be considered for a permanent modification. Federal, state and local officials will increase outreach to delinquent homeowners.

A growing number of borrowers are complaining that they are not receiving long-term assistance, fueling concerns that the plan will fall far short of its goal to help up to 4 million delinquent homeowners.

Under the president's plan, delinquent borrowers are put into trial modifications for several months to make sure they can handle the new payments and to give them time to submit their financial paperwork. Once the modification becomes permanent, servicers, investors and homeowners are eligible to receive thousands of dollars in incentive payments.

Loan servicers, however, say they are having trouble getting the necessary documents from borrowers, while homeowners maintain that their financial institutions are repeatedly losing the paperwork. Once their files are complete, borrowers may be denied long-term help if they don't meet the program's criteria.

Some 650,000 homeowners are currently in this preliminary phase, receiving payment reductions of about $576 per month, Barr said. About 375,000 people should be eligible to receive long-term relief by year's end.

Preliminary data shows that, as of Sept. 1, only 1,711, or 1.26%, of all trial adjustments were made permanent after three months. These figures come from the Congressional Oversight Panel, which monitors the government's use of bailout funds.

He would hope to see 50,000 to 100,000 people receiving permanent modifications by now, but is concerned the figure will be much lower.

"If we don't see a big increase in the permanent modification numbers, then there's something seriously wrong with this program," said Alan White, a law professor at Valparaiso University. "I can only assume the number is appallingly low."

White said he hopes that next week's report will show that at least 50,000 to 100,000 permanent modifications have been made.

Increasing oversight of the servicers' modification efforts should help, White said.

This is not the first time the administration has had to twist the screws on servicers. Over the summer, Treasury and Housing department officials called bank executives to Washington, D.C., and told them to ramp up their trial modification efforts.

Treasury in August began publishing monthly reports detailing each institution's progress in putting borrowers into trial adjustments. The idea was to shame servicers who were lagging and officials say they are pleased with the results. Borrowers in trial modifications jumped from 235,000 at the end of July to 650,000 three months later.

"We did see it help dramatically in increasing the number of trial modifications, which was the focus over the summer," Barr said. "We're now going to the next stage, which is to focus the banks' attention on the need to go to permanent modifications." 

Foreclosures: Worst-hit cities Started by Todd Hennig - Posted November 05, 2009 8:31am

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- While foreclosure rates are easing in some of the hardest-hit cities, the crisis is beginning to expand into new metro areas.

On Wednesday, RealtyTrac released its list of cities with the biggest foreclosure problems during the third quarter. As expected, towns in California, Florida and Nevada dominated the top 10, with Las Vegas taking the top spot with a rate of 1 in 20 homes. That's a 53% increase over the third quarter 2008.

But there was a bright spot: Half of the cities in the top 10 showed year-over-year declines in their foreclosure rates, and 60% showed improvement compared with the second quarter.

For example, second place Merced, Calif., saw foreclosures fall by 11% from last year and 13% from last quarter, to 1 out of every 27 homes. And Stockton, Calif., slipped to No. 4 from No. 2 last quarter. The city, which is 80 miles east of San Francisco, had ranked highest for all of 2008.

"We're not sure if that will be a one-time thing or a true continued trend, but it's one of the first positive signs we've seen," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.

New hotspots. But if Las Vegas was the big loser, its neighbor, Reno, Nev., was hot on its heels. The No. 9 city posted an 80% gain in foreclosures -- 1 in 37 homes -- compared to the third quarter of last year. And it's just one of several smaller metro areas that are creeping their way up RealtyTrac's foreclosure list.

"Foreclosure activity is spreading from primary cities into secondary areas," said Sharga. "These aren't your LAs and Phoenixes -- it's moving into outlying regions."

Boise, Idaho, cracked the top 20 for the first time as foreclosures jumped 141% -- the largest increase from 2008. Similarly, Provo, Utah, rose 120%.

The pair of cities "are the first two cases where areas with very high unemployment are breaking into the top spots," Sharga said. "That will continue over the next few months."

Outlook. "The fact is, we're still seeing record levels of foreclosure activity," said Sharga, who doesn't expect rates will peak until 2010 because many option-ARMs will reset over the next several months.

Still, the housing market seems to be adjusting, because home prices are stabilizing -- albeit at a lower level, Sharga said.

A record number of properties "are coming down the foreclosure pipeline" as well, Sharga said, and they will be trickling into the housing market over the next four years.

"We expect a longer, less robust recovery for the housing market," Sharga said. "We won't know what's what until everything gets worked out of the system." 

Obama bolsters program that insures home loans Started by Todd Hennig - Posted October 01, 2009 1:15pm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With a growing number of homebuyers depending on government-insured loans, the Obama administration is taking steps to shore up the Federal Housing Administration program.

Rising demand and a slower-than-expected rebound in home prices are pushing one of FHA's reserve accounts below the 2% ratio mandated by Congress, said Commissioner David Stevens. The capital reserves are a cushion against expected losses in the program, which has suffered soaring defaults amid the housing collapse.

The FHA has skyrocketed in popularity during the mortgage crisis since it backstops banks if borrowers stop paying. Housing experts are growing increasingly concerned about the agency's ability to handle rising numbers of defaults.

The drop in reserves, however, will not require a taxpayer-funded infusion into the housing agency, nor an increase in insurance premiums that FHA borrowers pay, Stevens said. The capital reserves, which are determined by an independent auditor and reported to Congress in November, will rise above the minimum threshold within a few years as the housing market recovers.

The agency's overall reserves stand at more than $30 billion, a record level thanks to the large influx of premium-paying borrowers, Stevens said. It covers more than 4.4% of its insurance commitments.

"To be clear, the fund's reserves are sufficient to cover our future losses, so the FHA will not require taxpayer assistance or new congressional action," Stevens said.

Still, the agency is taking a number of steps to reduce the riskiness of the program, which allows borrowers to purchase a home with as little as 3.5% down. It plans to hire its first chief risk officer in its 75-year history and to increase net-worth requirements for approved lenders to $1 million, up from $250,000. Lenders will also be responsible for any losses resulting from fraud on the part of mortgage brokers.

The changes may eliminate some smaller FHA lenders and will likely weed out some of the riskier borrowers, Stevens said.

These moves, particularly hiring a chief risk officer, are important steps that need to be taken, said Howard Glaser, head of the The Glaser Group, a financial services analytics firm. The agency grew so quickly that it was difficult to monitor the quality -- and riskiness -- of the loans being made.

While the FHA may want to raise borrower premiums or tighten its underwriting standards if defaults continue to rise, Glaser said the agency's $30 billion reserve is enough to cover its current loss estimates.

"It's surprising they are doing as well as they are," said Glaser, a former Clinton administration housing official.

As banks have clamped down on mortgage lending, the FHA program has emerged as one of the few ways people can buy a home these days. Banks are more willing to make FHA loans because they come with a federal guarantee to cover losses if the borrower defaults. And borrowers can more easily qualify for FHA loans because they only need 3.5% down and can have lower credit scores.

As a result, demand for FHA loans has exploded. FHA loans now account for 23% of the market, up from 2% in 2006, Stevens said. Some 80% of first-time homebuyers go through the agency.

The agency, however, has also seen a spike in delinquencies amid the mortgage meltdown. Some 14.42% of FHA loans were past due in the second quarter, up .58 percentage points from the same period a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Just under 3% of FHA loans were in foreclosure, up .22 percentage points.

Concerned about rising defaults, the agency has raised its standards for new borrowers. Only 7.5% of the portfolio has a credit score below 620, down from 50% two years ago. The average score is 690, versus 630 two years ago.

"The quality of the current FHA book is significantly better than anything seen in the FHA portfolios in recent years," Stevens said.